How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

Dated: August 1 2019

Views: 143

We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?

Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 9% believe a recession will occur this year
  • 50% believe it will occur in 2020
  • 35% believe it will occur in 2021
  • 6% believe it will occur after 2021

When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:

  1. Trade Policy
  2. Stock Market Correction
  3. Geopolitical Crisis

How might the recession impact real estate?

Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.

As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.

Bottom Line

On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.

Blog author image

Curtis Johnson

Curtis is a Best Selling Author, the Founder and CEO of The Curtis Johnson Team Powered By eXp Realty, where he runs a dynamic Real Estate Team having sold 5,000 residential homes. The Wall Street Jou....

Latest Blog Posts

Waiting To Buy a Home Could Cost You [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some HighlightsIf you’re thinking of buying a home but wondering if waiting a few years will save you in the long run, think again.The longer the wait, the more you’ll pay,

Read More

Home Sellers: There Is an Extra Way To Welcome Home Our Veterans

Some veterans are finding it difficult to obtain a home in today’s market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):“Conventional conforming

Read More

4 Reasons the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures

With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four

Read More

Pop Quiz: Can You Define These Key Terms in Today’s Housing Market? [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some HighlightsThe language of buying and selling a home may sound scary at first, but knowing how key terms relate to today’s market can help you. For example, current low mortgage

Read More