2020 Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Dated: March 23 2020

Views: 88

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Riskbelieves we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

Blog author image

Curtis Johnson

Curtis is a Best Selling Author, the Founder and CEO of The Curtis Johnson Team Powered By eXp Realty, where he runs a dynamic Real Estate Team having sold 5,000 residential homes. The Wall Street Jou....

Latest Blog Posts

Experts Agree: Homeownership Provides a Path to Long-Term Wealth

A recent survey from LendingTree.com found there are multiple reasons why Americans would choose to purchase a home instead of renting. Some of the most popular non-financial;

Read More

Reasons Renters Buy [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some HighlightsWhen deciding whether you should rent or buy, make sure you’re considering these factors.Buying a home means consistent monthly payments. Homeownership also helps

Read More

Early October is the Sweet Spot for Buyers

Are you looking to buy a home? If so, we’ve got good news for you.While there’s no denying the housing market is having a great year, many of the headlines are focused on 

Read More

If You’re a Buyer, Is Offering Asking Price Enough?

In today’s real estate market, buyers shouldn’t shop for a home with the expectation they’ll be able to negotiate a lower sales price. In a typical housing market, buyers try to

Read More