Confused About Economic Recovery? Here’s Why.

Dated: May 5 2020

Views: 62

As we continue to work through the health crisis that plagues this country, more and more conversations are turning to economic recovery. While we look for signs that we’ve reached a plateau in cases of COVID-19, the concern and fear of what will happen as businesses open up again is on all of our minds. This causes confusion about what an economic recovery will look like. With this in mind, it’s important to understand how economists are using three types of sciences to formulate their forecasts and to work toward clearer answers.

  1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
  2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?
  3. People Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“Although the uncertainty of the crisis means forecasts of economic activity are more unclear than usual, we expect that most of the economic damage from the virus will be contained to the first half of the year. Going forward, we should see a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.”

This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the advanced estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020. That estimate came in at -4.8%. It was a clear indicator showing how the U.S. economy slowed as businesses shut down and consumers retreated to their homes in fear of the health crisis and of contracting COVID-19.Confused About the Economic Recovery? Here’s Why. | MyKCMExperts agree that the second quarter of 2020 will be an even greater slowdown, a sign more businesses are feeling the effects of this health crisis. The same experts, however, project businesses will rebound, and a recovery will start to happen in the second half of this year.

Bottom Line

As time goes on, we’ll have more clarity around what the true economic recovery will look like, and we’ll have more information on the sciences that will affect it. As the nation’s economy comes back to life and businesses embrace new waves of innovation to serve their customers, the American spirit of grit, growth, and prosperity will be alive and well.

Blog author image

Curtis Johnson

Curtis is a Best Selling Author, the Founder and CEO of The Curtis Johnson Team Powered By eXp Realty, where he runs a dynamic Real Estate Team having sold 5,000 residential homes. The Wall Street Jou....

Latest Blog Posts

With Rents on the Rise – Is Now the Time To Buy?

According to recent data from realtor.com, median rental prices have reached their highest point ever recorded in many areas across the country. The report found rents rose

Read More

Waiting To Buy a Home Could Cost You [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some HighlightsIf you’re thinking of buying a home but wondering if waiting a few years will save you in the long run, think again.The longer the wait, the more you’ll pay,

Read More

Home Sellers: There Is an Extra Way To Welcome Home Our Veterans

Some veterans are finding it difficult to obtain a home in today’s market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):“Conventional conforming

Read More

4 Reasons the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures

With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four

Read More